LOS ANGELES – A program designed to prevent homelessness in LA County reduced participants’ likelihood of entering shelters by 71% compared to eligible people who didn’t enroll, according to a new report from the California Policy Lab at UCLA, though the findings come with significant limitations.
The study examined L.A. County’s Homelessness Prevention Unit during a pilot phase from May 2022 through February 2023, before a formal randomized trial began. Researchers compared 335 people who enrolled in the program to 1,285 others who were eligible but did not participate.
The report acknowledges that the comparison group was not randomly selected, which means the results may not accurately reflect the program’s effectiveness. People who chose to enroll in the prevention program may have been more motivated to avoid homelessness or had other advantages that weren’t measured in the study.
“This model helps us reach people before they experience a crisis,” said Dana Vanderford, associate director of homelessness prevention for the L.A. County Department of Health Services. However, the program has struggled with low enrollment rates throughout its operation.
The Homelessness Prevention Unit uses a predictive model to identify county residents at highest risk of becoming homeless and offers them intensive support including financial assistance averaging $6,469 per household. The program launched in 2021 as a partnership between the California Policy Lab, L.A. County Department of Health Services and the County Chief Information Office.
During the study period, only 21% of eligible people enrolled in the program. That rate increased to 35% after operational improvements were implemented, including a dedicated outreach team and standardized processes, but enrollment remains a major challenge.
The report states that 86% of the 1,498 people served by the program have retained their housing upon completion, though it doesn’t specify the length of follow-up or provide comparison data for similar populations not in the program.
“This is what smart homelessness prevention can look like, using predictive modeling and supportive services to act early,” said Janey Rountree, executive director of the California Policy Lab at UCLA. The program assigns case managers small caseloads and offers personalized support including healthcare, job services and help with essentials.
The study measured outcomes including housing stability, homelessness and interactions with county services during the 18-month follow-up period. However, the non-randomized design means the results cannot definitively prove the program caused the improved outcomes.
County spokesman Max Stevens called the early results encouraging but noted that more rigorous evaluation is needed. Results from a randomized controlled trial are expected in 2027.
The program represents a shift from reactive to proactive homelessness services, targeting people before they lose housing rather than after they become homeless. The predictive model uses county data to identify residents at highest risk.
The California Policy Lab report is available online and researchers say they are available for interviews about the findings and methodology.
