By Bo Tefu
Contributing Writer
SACRAMENTO — A new statewide survey of California voters reveals a notable gender divide among Black voters, with Black men more likely than Black women to lean Republican ahead of the 2026 primary election.
The findings come from the 2026 California Voter Index baseline survey, conducted March 12–17 among 2,000 likely voters by EVITARUS, a Black-and-Latina-women-led research firm. The poll offers an early snapshot of voter sentiment as campaigns for governor begin to intensify.
“This morning, we have publicly released a baseline survey of the race for governor,” said Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party. “Candidates for governor and their supporters are now fully ramping up their campaigns, voters are now beginning to pay more attention, and we expect additional movement in the coming weeks.”
While the broader electorate still leans Democratic — with 31% identifying as strong Democrats compared to 16% as strong Republicans — the survey highlights shifting dynamics within key demographic groups.
Among Black voters, who make up 8% of the sample, the data indicates they remain overwhelmingly Democratic as a whole. However, men are more likely to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party than women. Black women, by contrast, favor Democrats at higher rates.
Although the poll does not provide a detailed percentage breakdown between Black men and women, the finding reflects a gender gap that mirrors broader national trends, where political preferences among male and female voters have increasingly diverged across racial and ideological lines.
Overall, the survey points to a competitive political environment heading into the primary election, which will be held on June 2. Eighty-six percent of respondents said they are certain to vote, signaling strong turnout expectations. At the same time, 52% of voters said the state is on the wrong track, compared to 33% who believe it is headed in the right direction.
The governor’s race remains unsettled, with no clear frontrunner. Republican candidate Steve Hilton leads with 16%, followed by Republican Chad Bianco at 14%. Democratic candidates Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter and Tom Steyer each received about 10% support. Nearly a quarter of voters remain undecided.
As campaigns ramp up, shifts within demographic groups — including Black voters — could play a decisive role in shaping outcomes in what is expected to be a crowded and closely watched race.
Bo Tefu writes for California Black Media.
